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y@@z Future Scenario International Economics and Transport Based on the Delphi Method@ (a FNo.479j

yT@@@vz For a discussion on a future vision of international transport infrastructure and forecast on future trade and cargo demand, predicted figures for variables in socio-economics and infrastructure should be given as prerequisites. They will be simply estimated by extrapolation of past trends or based somewhat on econometric methodology. However, these figures may be very uncertain and difficult to estimate, especially in long-term forecasting with large changes over time.In this report, a questionnaire survey was conducted targeting many experts based on the Delphi method which seeks to consolidate expert opinions by repeating questions to the same respondents.The most probable future scenario for international economics and transport in East Asia was summarized in order to contribute to the discussion on the direction they will take in the future and how they ought to be.This is a translation version in English of Technical Note of NILIM, No. 479 in principle.

ySz Port Sistems Division

y@M@ҁz SHIBASAKI Ryuichi,ISHIKURA Tomoki,ABE Motohisa,
WATANABE Tomihiro, YAMANE Takayuki,YOSHIDA Tsuneaki,
ABE Kazutomo,NEMOTO Toshinori,HANAOKA Shinya,ONO Kenji

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