2009.4-2010.3 Yearbook of NILIM
Research Summary

Research Center for Disaster Risk Management

Reference Number	Y091306
Title	Study on Analysis of Cost-Benefit Ratio Change Cased by Climate Change
Start-End Date	2009.4-2010.3
Division	Erosion and Sediment Control Division
Author	Head, Nobutomo OSANAI Senior Researcher, Hideaki MIZNO Researcher, Takuro SUZUKI
Summary	This study aims to clarify the effect caused by the climate change. In order to project how much sediment-related disaster risk increases, we estimate the change of debris flow peak discharge. The ratio that the sediment-related disaster risk, in other word the peak discharge of debris flow, will increase is estimated at six per cents in Japan. And we applied the numerical simulation model for tracing residents in evacuation to the 2007 and 2008 debris flow disasters in Kagoshima. We found out that the numerical model could reproduce the ratio of evacuated residents roughly.